Research
Persistent, evidence-backed market theses that update as conditions change.
Research Pulse
30
Active Insights
The research base is stable — no material conviction shifts today; no active thesis was invalidated.
Priority Intelligence
Over-leverage on mid-cap RWA and AI narrative coins leads to 'hit' failure
High-conviction bets on RWA/AI tokens have consistently failed to materialize gains, showing significant mean reversion.
Why it matters: Narrative-driven FOMO is consistently providing liquidity for exit rather than sustainable growth.
AI Infrastructure
AI agents and infrastructure are seeing sustained institutional interest and high developer commitment, positioning this
Why it matters: Increased institutional capital allocation and persistent developer growth pushed conviction up from 72 to 78.
Liquidity buildup signals outpace social surfacing for entry viability
Early signals focused on liquidity metrics are demonstrating better fundamental grounding than those surfaced through social sentiment.
Why it matters: Market focus has shifted from speculative social mania back to liquidity-backed structural setups.
All Research
Low-risk conviction signals outperform high-risk picks
3 evidence · Updated 12h ago
RWA
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Memes
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
AKT — Akash Network
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
LPT — Livepeer
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Stablecoins
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
TRAC — OriginTrail
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
ANAKIN — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
PEAQ — Peaq Network
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
HNT — Helium
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
DePIN
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
AIOZ — AIOZ Network
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
RIF — RSK Infrastructure Framework
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
DACITYCOIN — volume acceleration
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
ATH — Aethir
4 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Gaming
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
WALXE — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
SOLAKIT — volume acceleration
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
FOCO — social surfacing
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
CC — social surfacing
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
INUX — breakout setup
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Capital Rotation
6 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Institutional ETF Outflows Persist Amid Market Uncertainty
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Ethereum Technicals Remain Bearish Below Key Moving Averages
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
THORChain Targeted by FBI Following Binance Hack
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Institutional ETF Outflows Signal Weakening Demand
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Binance Security Breach Fallout Triggers $6.3B Market Contagion
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Over-leverage on mid-cap RWA and AI narrative coins leads to 'hit' failure
High-conviction bets on RWA/AI tokens have consistently failed to materialize gains, showing significant mean reversion.
Thesis
Narrative-driven FOMO is consistently providing liquidity for exit rather than sustainable growth.
Key findings
- •High-conviction labeling is currently a contrarian signal for RWA/AI assets.
- •Deep drawdowns (-40% to -90%) are common for 'hot' narrative picks.
Opposing evidence
No conflicting evidence recorded — the thesis is currently uncontested.
Invalidation conditions
- A cluster of high-conviction RWA/AI picks resulting in positive net performance for 3 consecutive rounds.
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