Research
Persistent, evidence-backed market theses that update as conditions change.
Research Pulse
28
Active Insights
6 insights strengthened after 62 new evidence events — led by High-conviction radar picks (>80) underperform market benchmarks and Early Signal Liquidity Buildup remains a leading indicator for volume; no active thesis was invalidated.
Priority Intelligence
Mid-conviction (70-75) calls outperform high-conviction (>80) calls
The sweet spot for alpha lies in moderate confidence signals
Why it matters: Current data suggests market makers are targeting moderate confidence zones for accumulation.
High-conviction radar picks (>80) underperform market benchmarks
Analysis shows 'hit' rate is significantly lower for ultra-high conviction calls due to crowd-following
Why it matters: The market is currently punishing consensus-heavy conviction plays.
AI Agent Payments narrative dominates risk-adjusted returns
Narrative momentum correlates with successful execution in our radar
Why it matters: High capital rotation into AI-linked protocols justifies prioritizing these signals.
All Research
HYPE — Hyperliquid
4 evidence · Updated 22h ago
AI Infrastructure
5 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Memes
5 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Early Signal Liquidity Buildup remains a leading indicator for volume
2 evidence · Updated 8h ago
ONDO — Ondo Finance
4 evidence · Updated 22h ago
BMIC — Blockchain Miners' Infrastructure Coin
3 evidence · Updated 22h ago
LIT — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
AR — Arweave
3 evidence · Updated 22h ago
GRT — The Graph
3 evidence · Updated 22h ago
KNTQ — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
RWA
5 evidence · Updated 22h ago
SNX — Synthetix
3 evidence · Updated 22h ago
QBT — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
STRK — Starknet
3 evidence · Updated 22h ago
DePIN
5 evidence · Updated 22h ago
ZETA — ZetaChain
3 evidence · Updated 22h ago
FLUX — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
PONS — social surfacing
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Gaming
5 evidence · Updated 22h ago
ORCA — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
DeFi
5 evidence · Updated 22h ago
RAVE — social surfacing
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Capital Rotation
6 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Binance Hack Fallout Continues to Trigger Altcoin Liquidations
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Altcoin Liquidity Remains Fragile After $1.5B Liquidations
0 evidence · Updated 22h ago
Mid-conviction (70-75) calls outperform high-conviction (>80) calls
The sweet spot for alpha lies in moderate confidence signals
Thesis
Current data suggests market makers are targeting moderate confidence zones for accumulation.
Key findings
- •Focus on 70-75 conviction range for best risk-reward
- •Avoid over-exposure to 'high' conviction extremes
Opposing evidence
No conflicting evidence recorded — the thesis is currently uncontested.
Invalidation conditions
- If hit rate for 70-75 conviction range drops below 30%.
Track & notify