Intelligence Wiki

Living docs

How Arvio works, in depth

A transparent reference for every engine, model, and surface on the platform — built so you can verify the methodology behind every conviction score.

The core loop

Arvio isn't a tracker. It's a self-improving prediction engine — every call it makes is logged, scored against reality, and fed back into the models that shape the next call.

Detect

Mine on-chain, market & social signals

Predict

LLM forms a directional conviction

Score

Resolve against real price moves

Calibrate

Fit realized-probability models

Improve

Feed weights back into curation

Explore the platform

8 sections

The Five Prediction Engines

Core

Radar Conviction, Early Signals, Catalysts, Narratives, and Token Analysis — what each looks for and how conviction is formed.

Calibrated Confidence

The ML layer: how raw conviction becomes a realized probability, regime conditioning, feature weights, horizons, drift detection, and pattern mining.

Market Intelligence & Indices

Market sentiment, Narrative Index, Ecosystem Index, capital rotation, and the daily briefing.

The Token Report

What the deep analysis covers — sections, conviction, safety, bull/bear, and how calibrated confidence appears.

Wallet Health

What we score and why, the frozen-basket portfolio track record, smart-money tracking, and followed wallets.

Intelligence Objects

Opportunities, narratives, rotations, risks, theses, signals, and patterns — and how conviction evolves over time.

The Intelligence Loop

Core

The five-stage detect → predict → score → calibrate → improve cycle that makes Arvio self-improving.

Personalization & Pro

User signals, adaptive feed, watchlists, alerts, Arvio Pro, and referrals.

Sections are being published progressively. Synthesized intelligence — not financial advice.

Updated July 19, 2026