Research
Persistent, evidence-backed market theses that update as conditions change.
Research Pulse
28
Active Insights
The research base is stable — no material conviction shifts today; no active thesis was invalidated.
Priority Intelligence
Mid-conviction (70-75) calls outperform high-conviction (>80) calls
The sweet spot for alpha lies in moderate confidence signals
Why it matters: Current data suggests market makers are targeting moderate confidence zones for accumulation.
High-conviction radar picks (>80) underperform market benchmarks
Analysis shows 'hit' rate is significantly lower for ultra-high conviction calls due to crowd-following
Why it matters: The market is currently punishing consensus-heavy conviction plays.
AI Agent Payments narrative dominates risk-adjusted returns
Narrative momentum correlates with successful execution in our radar
Why it matters: High capital rotation into AI-linked protocols justifies prioritizing these signals.
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0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
RWA
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
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3 evidence · Updated 1d ago
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0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
STRK — Starknet
3 evidence · Updated 1d ago
DePIN
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
FLUX — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
ZETA — ZetaChain
3 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Gaming
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
PONS — social surfacing
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
ORCA — liquidity buildup
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
DeFi
5 evidence · Updated 1d ago
RAVE — social surfacing
0 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Capital Rotation
6 evidence · Updated 1d ago
Altcoin Liquidity Remains Fragile After $1.5B Liquidations
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Binance Hack Fallout Continues to Trigger Altcoin Liquidations
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Mid-conviction (70-75) calls outperform high-conviction (>80) calls
The sweet spot for alpha lies in moderate confidence signals
Thesis
Current data suggests market makers are targeting moderate confidence zones for accumulation.
Key findings
- •Focus on 70-75 conviction range for best risk-reward
- •Avoid over-exposure to 'high' conviction extremes
Opposing evidence
No conflicting evidence recorded — the thesis is currently uncontested.
Invalidation conditions
- If hit rate for 70-75 conviction range drops below 30%.
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